The Fallacy of Extrapolation
Posted on Monday, May 20, 2013 by Michael Canic

“If the current trend continues …”

How often have you heard someone say that when talking about the future? “If oil reserves continue to be depleted at the current rate …” “If housing prices keep going up …” “If our business keeps growing by double-digits …”

Extrapolation. Extending a past trend into the future. We seem to have a default assumption that things will keep going in the direction they’re going. The problem is in most cases they don’t. New oil reserves get discovered. The housing market gets overheated. Businesses get knocked down.

Assuming the extrapolation of a trend ignores the importance of context. Sure, oil reserves will continue to be depleted … unless new discoveries and better technology help to replenish them. Yes, housing prices will keep going up … unless too many homeowners assume too much risk or new buyers can’t afford to get into the market. And of course your business will keep growing by double-digits … unless competitors take action, technology evolves, markets change and the economy fluctuates.

Trends are not guarantees. They’re often not even the best predictors.

When assessing and forecasting for your business, don’t assume the extrapolation of trends. Ask yourself which contextual factors have supported or inhibited the trends and how could they change.

Your thoughts?

Michael

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The Deng Xiaoping Test
Posted on Monday, May 13, 2013 by Michael Canic

A few years back I was at a big strategy and leadership forum in NYC listening to Michael Porter, the Harvard prof who is well known for his work on competition and strategy. So Porter goes through a bunch of models and concepts – lots of detail – about what companies need to do to become successful.

Then Jack Welch, at the peak of his fame and recently retired from GE, gets up to speak.

“You hear all that stuff Porter talked about?”

Uhhh, ya.

“Well, we didn’t do any of that.”

Lots of laughter.

Which got me thinking about Deng Xiaoping. Who? You know, the guy who orchestrated probably the most dramatic and successful political transformation of the 20th century. Following in the sizeable footsteps of Mao Zedong, it was Deng who introduced market-based principles and reforms into China’s communist economy. And it was Deng the savvy pragmatist who said, “It doesn’t matter whether the cat is black or white, as long as it catches the mouse.”

In business there are many models and many approaches, many of which have been successful. Whether you’re a disciple of Michael Porter or Jack Welch doesn’t matter. What matters is getting the result.

So apply the Deng Xiaoping test. Don’t be overly concerned about whether your cat is black or white. Only that it catches the mouse.

Your thoughts?

Michael

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The Entrepreneurs' Curse
Posted on Monday, May 6, 2013 by Michael Canic

True entrepreneurs have the gift of seeing opportunities everywhere. True entrepreneurs have the curse of seeing opportunities everywhere. The very trait that allows them to envision the possible, allows them to get distracted from achieving the possible.

I recently had lunch with a client, two co-founders of an up-and-coming consulting firm. Having helped them narrow and redefine their focus, and reformulate their positioning, they’re now excited about the possibility of pursuing multiple new verticals and even international work.

Stop. Take what you’ve proven in one vertical and successfully extend it into a ripe-for-adoption second vertical. And defer the complexities of doing business internationally – cultural differences, staffing, regulations, and so on – until that second vertical is proven. Then you’ll have a vertical-independent platform from which to grow your business and expand in the direction you choose.

Many growing businesses lose focus and spread themselves too thin. As a result, they outstrip their infrastructure and ability to deliver. And they implode.

There will always be more opportunities than you can exploit. Always. Narrow your focus. Intensify your commitment. And rigorously execute.

Your thoughts?

Michael

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You, the Elite Performer
Posted on Monday, Apr 29, 2013 by Michael Canic

You’re like an elite athlete. You may not pursue the Olympic ideals of citius, altius, fortius, but you’re an elite performer in your field.

Elite athletes exercise their bodies by running and lifting weights. You exercise your mind by consuming content and engaging people. They fuel their bodies with well-planned nutritional regimens. You fuel your mind with …

Uh-oh.

For optimal performance your mind needs the right fuel every bit as much as your body needs the right fuel. Are you fueling yourself like an elite performer?

While I won’t get into nutritional specifics – and there is a mountain of information available – here are three guidelines that help me get the right fuel:

1.  Make Everything You Eat and Drink a Conscious Choice

  • None of us makes good choices all the time but we’re more likely to make good choices when we’re conscious of them

2.  Decide Before You Desire

  • Once the desire for food or fluids kicks in it’s harder to make good choices; better to plan ahead what you’re going to eat and drink, when and where

3.  Always Be Packing

  • When we’re low on fuel we grab for whatever fuel is available, good or bad; I’d rather avoid the bad stuff than resist it so I take a selection of teas and food bars with me everywhere

You’re an elite performer. Your input helps determine your output. Why leave your performance to chance?

Your thoughts?

Michael

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The Three Rules for Success!
Posted on Monday, Apr 22, 2013 by Michael Canic

Business is so complex. If only they could boil it down to a few, simple rules for success.

They can. And they have. The authors of a recent HBR article looked at over 25,000 companies across 44 years and deduced … dadada, daaaaa … the three rules for success! (Caution: You may not want to get too excited yet.)

Rule number one: Better before cheaper. OK, hard to break into or upend a market with a so-so product regardless of the price. Got it.

Rule number two: Revenue before cost. No revelation here. You can’t efficiency your way to success if you don’t have revenue. Get the lifeblood flowing before you obsess over cost.

Rule number three: There are no other rules. Cute. I guess “The Two Rules of Success” seemed a touch light for a title, so they came up with this third rule.

So there you have it. Feel better now? No, me neither.

Think I’ll stick with my three rules for success: Develop and sustain the right focus. Continually create the right environment. And get the right people. Do those three things with ruthless consistency and your people will do what it takes to win.

Your thoughts?

Michael

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The Motivation Contagion
Posted on Monday, Apr 15, 2013 by Michael Canic

Surround an employee with highly motivated people and what happens? Their drive and performance increases. Surround an employee with less motivated people and what happens? Their drive and performance decreases.

Motivation is contagious. That was a key finding from a series of studies by researchers at the University of Rochester. We are influenced by and mimic the people in our environment. For better or for worse.

Two big surprises: 1) Workers were unaware of the influence that others had on their performance. 2) Inserting even a single highly motivated or less motivated individual in the workplace can impact the performance of others.

Hire, cultivate and reinforce highly motivated people. People who are driven to achieve. You’ll find it’s contagious.

Your thoughts?

Michael

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The Whole Truth and Nothing but the Truth
Posted on Monday, Apr 8, 2013 by Michael Canic

As a leader you need candid and specific input from your people. The straight goods. Not just generalizations or feel-good fluff. So how do you make sure you’re getting it? Answer: Ask the right type of questions.

Don’t Ask: General Questions

“How are things going at the plant?” “Good.”

General questions produce answers that yield little if any information. And they leave too much room for spin. “Good” could mean anything from “Well, the place hasn’t burnt to the ground yet,” to “We’re starting to see some solid productivity improvements.”

Don’t Ask: Positive-Assumption Questions

“Is morale still strong at your location?” “Ya, pretty strong.”

Faced with a positive-assumption question, most employees are reluctant to disappoint. So they respond by weakly confirming the positive assumption. “Ya, pretty strong,” could mean, “Sure, among those who haven’t jumped ship yet.”

Do Ask: Negative-Assumption Questions

“What’s the number one challenge you’re facing in your department?” “Our main supplier has become unreliable at meeting delivery commitments. It’s causing havoc with our production schedule and ultimately we’re disappointing our customers.”

That’s real information that points to a line of constructive questions: “Do we understand what is causing supplier unreliability? Do we know how long it’s likely to continue? How could we adjust our schedules to take this into account? What short-term alternatives are there?”

Psychological research has found that respondents are far more likely to divulge problems when asked negative-assumption questions (87%) versus positive-assumption questions (59%) or general questions (10%).

The point? To get real information, ask negative-assumption questions with positive intentions.

Your thoughts?

Michael

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The Four Levels of Brand Equity
Posted on Monday, Apr 1, 2013 by Michael Canic

Last week I provided three benchmarks to test the strength of your brand. This week: what is the value, the equity, in a strong brand? Consider the Brand Pyramid TM shown above.

1) Awareness

If the people who you want to know about your brand don’t know about it, even when they see or hear your name, then congratulations, you have zero brand equity. But if they recognize your name or, even better, can recall it, then at least you have some brand equity.

2) Associations

Your brand has more value if people have positive associations with it. Meaning, what they think and feel about your organization and offerings, and more importantly what they think and feel about themselves when they engage you.

3) Attraction

Your brand has even greater equity if it creates attraction during the buying process. Do they merely consider you? Or do they prefer you? Will they explicitly request you? Most powerfully, will they insist on using you?

4) Advocacy

If people are asked, will they recommend you? Even better, will they promote your brand even if they’re not asked? If so, you’ve reached the top of the pyramid.

Today, how much equity is there in your brand? To compete and win, how much equity does there need to be? Build the pyramid.

Your thoughts?

Michael

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The Three Attributes of a Strong Brand
Posted on Monday, Mar 25, 2013 by Michael Canic

How strong is your brand? Here are three benchmarks against which to test it:

1) Focused and Memorable

It’s often said that you can’t be all things to all people. You can’t be both Courvoisier and Coca Cola. Every strong brand is known for something. That something has to be memorable. It can’t be convoluted and it can’t be too conceptual. What is BMW known for? Performance. That’s why their tagline is (can you complete it?) “the Ultimate _______  _______.”

2) Desirably Different

Everyone talks about differentiation but there are many ways to differentiate yourself that are irrelevant (or even offensive) to the market. You have to be different in a desirable way. Colgate Kitchen Entrees, BIC disposable underwear, and Harley-Davidson perfume were all different. Quick test: desirable or not?

3) Ruthlessly Consistent

If you crave a burger from time to time and you find yourself traveling, you want to know that the Big Mac in Austin will taste like the Big Mac in Boston. Your desire is based on an expectation and if your experience doesn’t match it then you’re disappointed with the brand. With strong brands, your brand experience consistently matches your expectations.

How does your brand measure up against these three attributes? And which attribute should you strengthen to be more competitive?

Your thoughts?

Michael

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The Unintended, Unrecognized and Unforgiveable Consequences of Failure
Posted on Monday, Mar 18, 2013 by Michael Canic

Most organizational change initiatives fail. Statistics bear this out regardless of the type of initiative.

So is there a hidden cost of failure? Absolutely. When change initiatives fail you create a track record of failure. You build an expectation of failure. You establish an acceptance of failure. And you create a culture of failure. Failure becomes the norm.

Hold on, you think, we don’t exactly fail. And it’s not like we fail all the time. We’ve made progress in a lot of areas. There are things we get done.

That’s it? That’s your defense? And you’re the leader?

The real cost of failure is that people rationalize anything less than success. Starting with you. And when you’ve created a culture of failure how easy is it to inspire your people to execute the next big thing? Good luck. No, great luck, because you’re going to need it.

Look back at your change initiatives over the past couple of years. What kind of culture have you created?

Your thoughts?

Michael

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